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Are Managers Optimizing Their Best Relievers?
January 2, 2003 - Fred Bobberts
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The idea of "leveraged" appearances, is interesting because it attempts to capture the essence of the sequential nature of bullpen decision making in the late innings. But I can't help wondering if it is leading analysts in the wrong direction. I remember some managers from the seventies and eighties - Billy Martin and Sparky Anderson come to mind - who would trot out their stoppers in the seventh inning in certain situations. Their reasoning was clear. They felt that the particular situation at hand was serious enough to be their most likely chance to lose the game RIGHT THEN. They were determined to put out the fire, and not wait to see if the situation would get better on its own. And they were both excellent bullpen managers.
If Milt Wilcox or Ed Figueroa tired in the seventh and allowed two runners in a one- run game against a good starter- well, it was Willie Herndandez time for Sparky or the Goose was up for Billy. They wasn't going to wait until they were two runs down, and these men were no longer a potential factor in the game. The modern practice of only pitching your stopper in the ninth is very strange to me. I saw Buck Showalter throw away a good part of the entire second half of the 1995 season. He was just determined to use Wetteland for only the ninth, watching Perez and Wickman blow game after game. Check it - Wetteland pitched 61 innings in 60 games. You can't tell me he couldn't have had a positive effect on his team with 20-30 more innings pitched. Hey, I lived in New York and had to watch that season.
But Willie Hernandez's 140 innings in 1984 would have probably lowered his leverage figure for that year. I say this, but I haven't calculated it, so maybe I can't say squat. But I doubt the innings he pitched in the 6th and 7th would add to his figure. Does this really mean he was misused? To me the answer would be "not if his extra innings went to Sid Monge, Dave Rozema, or Glen Abbott".
If leverage is the key figure for bullpen use, then a manager should save his best reliever for use only in the ninth, with men on. Clearly, he could do some good in other situations. There has to be a way to calculate the costs and benefits of the use of certain pitchers in certain situations, and this is a step in the right direction. Finding this answer means finally understanding the value of good set-up men, and maybe publicizing their real value. Hats off to Ramiro Mendoza, Aurelio Lopez, Mike Stanton, etc.
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